I have been following the Russia-Ukraine conflict for several months now (not since the beginning, but since perhaps October 2022).
The show
I’m not going to get into the political who-did-what-and-why aspect of this, because even keeping that aside, this has been fascinating and horrifying to watch.
I got the sense that I could divide the conflict so far into four distinct “seasons”, with a transition (a finale and a beginning) happening right now.
Season 1
Season 1 was the initial invasion, both its suddenness, and the failure (at Hostomel and more broadly too).
Season 2
Season 2 was the resistance to any gains, and the dramatic retaking of Kharkiv and then, Kherson.
(This was also, in hindsight, a maximal point for Ukraine)
Season 3
Season 3 was the launch of the summer counteroffensive, and its failure beyond limited gains up to Robotyne.
Season 4
Season 4, which concluded only this week, was the grueling attrition that denied the beachhead at Krynky, and, despite heavy losses, overran and captured Avdiivka.
Season 5
Season 5, which I believe is beginning now, is the attempt to consolidate and push forward across the overall Donetsk front, which … may succeed or fail.
Coming up …
One way or another, I expect the current season to last till this summer.
Unlike a regular televised (or streaming) show, no one knows where we’ll end up at that point.
Also unlike a regular show, we don’t know how long this show will last.