The world after Brexit

I think the real lesson ought to be to stop trusting your instinctive feelings about what can and cannot (or should and should not) happen, and start taking polls seriously. A corollary would be to  check if you’re living in a bubble and if so, to peek outside it a bit.

Of course, some times even the polls can be “read” in a way that makes you feel better. As a more concrete example, here is Nate Silver with a column just six months ago, (boldly!) titled “Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls”. Go ahead and read the comments at the bottom.

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